SOUTH Africa, which missed out on
the commodities super cycle, is now
also missing the tourism super cycle.
Calculations by Grant Thornton in
its report for TBCSA on the cost of
the regulations did not include the
tourism jobs windfall, which South
Africa should have experienced as a
consequence of the depreciated rand.
Since the end of June last year,
tourists from Europe find their
battered euro still goes 9% further
when buying rands. Yet the latest
stats from Statistics South Africa
show numbers from Germany dropped
12% in June compared with the
previous year.
UK tourists today find the rand 19%
more competitive than in June last
year yet their visitor numbers
are down 8% this year.
Tourists from the USA today can
buy 32% more rands with their
dollar than 15 months ago. Based on
the elasticity of price and demand,
new jobs should be in
abundance as visitor numbers
increase by more than that
percentage. Instead, US
arrivals dropped 9%.
India’s rupee has
appreciated 20% while visitor
numbers in June dropped
25%, an accelerating trend
as the year-to-date figure for
the first six months is 15%.
China’s currency buys 28%
more rands but the number of
Chinese declined by 28%.
Many of the visitors in
these two source markets
are affected both by the
unabridged birth certificate
regulations for minors as well
as the new biometric visa
requirement – the equipment
for which, ironically, Home
Affairs has admitted to TNW
is yet to be installed in the
South African missions in
China, India and Russia.
