Iata is forecasting what it calls a “tremendous revenue shock” for the aviation industry this year after it revealed a report about the impact of COVID-19 on the world in an industry teleconference on March 24.
“We expect a 38% fall in global demand,” said Brian Pearce, Iata chief economist. This will equate to a 44% revenue decline of US$252bn (R4,3trn) in 2020.
Brian also expects the industry to recover much later than widely expected. “When other pandemics occurred, the industry was able to rebound much sooner.” He added that it was unlikely that the industry would recover in six months because the entire world would have suffered the effects of a global recession as a result of various travel restrictions and bans put in place during the pandemic.
Iata expects a strong 2021 recovery backed by government stimuli, such as interest rate cuts, loan payment deferrals, industry investment initiatives and social support, among measures that should have a positive long-term impact.
The association estimates that the industry will require up to $200bn (R3,51trn) in government relief measures to survive the current liquidity crisis, and says while some governments have stepped up with support, many more need to follow to prevent the collapse of the airline industry.
